SHOPSMART AUTOS – CUSTOMER INFORMATION – DECEMBER 11, 2020
Will 2021 Be The Breakout Year for EVs in the US?
Electric vehicle sales in the US are basically flat, but are poised to regain strong year-over-year growth in the next few years. The key questions are: When?, and Which EVs will be the top sellers?
Current US EV Sales Have Hit the Doldrums
Using initial InsideEVs Sales Scorecard estimates through August, plus my own estimates, US EV sales are down ~24% YOY for August and up ~7% YTD. YOY sales are down ~8,500 units, while sales of the Tesla Model 3 are down an estimated ~4,650 units. In January I predicted 12% YOY sales increase in 2019, but unless sales of the Tesla Model 3 absolutely crush it in the remaining 3+ months, 2019 could potentially see a decline in YOY sales.
In fact, I’ve recently updated my near-term forecast for the US and now project that EV sales could decline 6% YOY, even with very strong sales of the Model 3.
Beyond the Tesla Model 3 there simply isn’t another electric vehicle that is selling in consistent high volume. No vehicle other than the Model 3 is averaging at least 2,000 units per month. YTD, the Model 3 is averaging an estimated 11,781 units per month, versus 1,757 for the Toyota Prius Prime, Tesla Model X at 1,506, Chevrolet Bolt at an estimated 1,345. The once top-selling Nissan LEAF is now averaging sales of only about 1,000 units per month. According to GoodCarBadCar’s year end 2018 ranking, the Tesla Model 3 was the 35th best-selling vehicle in the US. The next highest standalone EVs (meaning not on a shared platform) were the Tesla Model S and X at #129 and #137 respectively. The Chevrolet Volt, which GM has discontinued, came in at #163 and the Chevrolet Bolt at #165. To break into the top 50 in sales in 2018, an electric vehicle would have needed to sell approximately 104,000 units or an average of 8,667 units per month. Other than the Tesla Model 3, there is currently no other EV anywhere close to this kind of volume. The US clearly needs several new high-volume, long-range, and “affordable” EVs to reinvigorate the market. But when will they arrive?
Defining “Breakout”
What do I actually mean by “breakout” year? To be clear, what I DON’T mean is that EV sales in the US will “cross the chasm” or reach 16% of total new vehicle sales. What I do mean is that for the first time in the US we will see several specific indicators that point to significant EV sales beginning to occur outside of California, Tesla, and upper-income ealy-adopting segments. The following are rather arbitrary metrics, but to me they will indicate that EV sales are starting to show signs of moving towards mainstream adoption:
- A majority of states have a new EV sales share of
near or above 2%
: Through the first 6 months of 2019, 12 states had an EV market share of at least 2%. This is up from 8 states with more than 2% share for all of 2018. Reaching say half – roughly 25 states – at or above 2%, I believe would be a strong sign that EV sales were startingto go beyond just the early-adopting states.
- Two automakers
other than
Tesla have an EV with at least 30,000 in annual sales. Since 2010, only two EVs have exceeded the 30,000 mark: the Nissan LEAF in 2014 and the Tesla Model 3 in 2018 and 2019. Three different automakers achieving that milestone would show the market is clearly expanding beyond a single current “hot EV.” - Five EVs have annual sales of at least 25,000 units and three of those exceed 50,000 units.
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