SHOPSMART AUTOS – MARCH 30, 2021 – As More Electric Cars Arrive, What’s The Future For Gas-Powered Engines?
Most American automobiles are powered by internal combustion engines: Gas or diesel goes in, tiny explosions power pistons and turn a crankshaft, the car moves forward, and carbon dioxide goes out. But a growing chorus of environmental activists, business analysts and auto executives are predicting a sea change as battery-powered electric vehicles grow in popularity. Going electric is not just an eco-friendly goal, an ambition that would help fight climate change. It’s a business reality, according to industry analysts. But if the general path ahead is widely agreed on, the speed of the change — and the role that combustion vehicles will play during the transition — is far from clear. Electric vehicles are currently a tiny fraction of the car market, which is dominated by internal combustion engines. But many more electric car models will hit showrooms in the next few years, and several factors have analysts convinced that is part of a major transition in the industry. Government policies — particularly in Europe and China — are giving a boost to electric vehicles, as regulators consider not only the devastating impacts of climate change but also the value of improved air quality in cities. Auto companies around the world are gearing up for what will be a massive financial commitment. Carmakers plan to invest more than $90 billion in the shift to electric vehicles over the next decade or so, according to a Reuters analysis. Electric motors are simpler, making them easier to maintain and meaning they should last longer. Keeping them charged is cheaper than buying gas, an advantage that will become even more significant if gas prices rise. On the other hand, gas-powered cars are cheaper to buy than electric vehicles. It’s also quicker to fill up at the pump than it is to recharge, and the country is packed with gas stations, while charging station infrastructure is still in its infancy. But experts predict batteries will get cheaper, charging will get quicker, and chargers will become more readily available. At some point, industry watchers say, the balance will shift. Some global analyst, predicts electric vehicles will outsell conventional ones by 2030. Other analysts say this change could be slower — but most agree it is coming. Even people who love the internal combustion engine see the writing on the wall. John Woods owns a 1972 Porsche 914. On a recent Sunday, he joined other car enthusiasts at a parking lot in Alexandria, Va., to rev his engine and grin at the sound of it. The rise of electric vehicles, however, doesn’t automatically mean the end of the reign of the gas-powered car. Putting more battery-powered cars into circulation is only half of the equation. The next question is, what happens to all the combustion vehicles already on the road? One possibility is that they might get replaced quite quickly with electric vehicles. That’s what environmental activists want, for the sake of curbing climate change. For instance, the Green New Deal proposed by Democrats calls for phasing out carbon-emitting vehicles within a decade — which would require not only very fast production of electric vehicles but also a sudden withdrawal of combustion vehicles from roads.Others are far more skeptical of an accelerated timeline and anticipate the two types of vehicle will coexist on the road for a long time.And there’s one last wrinkle when considering the future of the combustion engine: The rise of the plug-in hybrid, which can run exclusively off battery power or use a combustion engine. The transformation of the auto industry is real, experts say — and happening much faster than skeptics would have predicted just a few years ago. But the turnover of the fleet will take time, and the phase out of combustion vehicles likely won’t be fast enough to satisfy environmental advocates concerned about global warming.
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