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Russia’s New Car Sales Hurtle Down: An Effect of Ukraine invasion

Despite the fact that Russia’s currency, the ruble, appears to have stabilized after plunging in the face of crippling global financial sanctions in reaction to the invasion of Ukraine, the country’s automobile market is still in for a wild ride. According to recent reports, Russia’s New Car Sales fell by more than 60% in March, the first full month since the country’s entry into Ukraine. It may appear self-evident that global automakers boycotting the Russian market, financial sanctions on the banking system, and worried Russian citizens cutting back on extra spending in anticipation of a recession or worse, that car sales are suffering—but the reasons for this severe drop-off are as complex as they are diverse. The country’s currency was bolstered by feverish machinations by Russia’s New Car version of our Federal Reserve (a central bank), highlighted by a substantial interest rate hike to as high as 20%. However, examine the effects of such a rate: Taking out a loan for a car or a house in Russia must be prohibitively expensive right now, which is likely reducing demand. Take a look at the ruble’s wild voyage over the last two months. The ruble’s value fell sharply against the dollar when the United States and other countries placed harsh sanctions on foreign Russian financial holdings, money movement in and out of Russia, and important personalities and oligarchs close to the Kremlin. Customers have witnessed mortgage and vehicle loan rates rising in lockstep since the Fed hiked interest rates somewhat in the United States; mortgage interest rates have nearly quadrupled since the end of last year—and even then, to “just” 5%. The difference in America is that the economy is still hot enough to drive inflation, and the Fed’s interest rate tinkering has yet to cool demand for cars, homes, and other items enough to bring prices under control moving forward, despite the fact that this is the goal. It’s not the same as purposely crippling an entire country’s finances, as Russia is currently doing. Even if each of these disasters were considered separately, they would make customers think twice about buying a new automobile instead of, for example, putting money aside to pay for necessities in case circumstances grow worse. Angry citizens are at the heart of Russia’s economic Venn diagram right now; whether they’re concerned about interest rates, the ruble’s depreciation, or the fact that the new car they wanted to buy costs nearly half as much as it did two months ago, or that the car they wanted is simply unavailable, the end result is the same: they’re not buying cars.
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Of course, cars in Russia aren’t only more expensive to finance—according to Automotive News, the supply of new vehicles has dried up as a result of automakers suspending manufacturing in the country or simply refusing to transport cars from outside the country, pushing costs up by as much as 40%. Imagine paying Maserati prices for a small Toyota SUV. That’s how a 40% price increase looks! According to Automotive News, Russia is scrambling to locate other car supplies. It is looking domestically, though sanctions on the export of certain car parts and chips to Russia are causing problems, and the government is considering importing more cars from India and China, two countries that have remained relatively neutral or supportive of Russia while the rest of the world has turned its back on it. Some Russians are reportedly streaming into non-sanctioned neighboring nations to buy whatever they can, but there’s no denying that global sanctions are having an impact on Russia’s new car auto market and that the consequences are far, far worse than the consequences for the rest of the world.

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