SHOPSMART AUTOS – CUSTOMER INFORMATION – APRIL 3, 2021 -2
HYDROGEN VEHICLES ARE WE READY? Predicting the future is always risky. But it’s long been clear that vehicles are one of the main sources of air pollution that takes thousands of lives a year in the U.S. alone through lung disease, asthma, cancer and more. And that ultimately, the world would have to move toward vehicles that didn’t treat our shared air like a giant trash bin, emitting toxic substances every time they were powered on. Two technologies could deliver vehicles with zero emissions: battery-electric powertrains and hydrogen fuel cells. For decades, hydrogen was presumed to be “the fuel of the future,” with electric cars limited to the niche of small, short-range urban cars. That’s not how it’s played out. And as 2021 seems poised to be a big year for electric car development—pandemic aside—it’s worth examining how this happened.EVs Have Swamped Hydrogen Cars
It all comes down to two things: battery cost and fueling infrastructure. Over the last 10 years, the consensus on both has changed quite radically. Despite more than half a century of development, starting in 1966 with GM’s Electrovan, hydrogen fuel-cell cars remain low in volume, expensive to produce, and restricted to sales in the few countries or regions that have built hydrogen fueling stations.
TOYOTA Progress on hydrogen vehicles has been slow but steady; the 2016 Toyota Mirai was the first such vehicle ever built in volumes of 1,000 a year or more. Toyota says its 2021 successor will be built in 10 times that volume. (It’s also much more visually striking, something that could never be said about its startling and ungainly predecessor. Rear-wheel drive now, too.) Meanwhile, 10 years after the first modern EVs went on sale, electric cars sell in the low millions a year globally—two orders of magnitude higher than their hydrogen counterparts. They’re likely not yet consistently profitable for any maker, including Tesla, but General Motors and Volkswagen say that will change within the next few years, well before 2030. Crucially, battery-powered vehicles are the technology behind which China has thrown the weight of its government-industrial policy for the country’s auto industry—not hydrogen fuel cells. It intends to dominate the global production of cars with plugs just as it already does photovoltaic solar cells—and will soon do in lithium-ion battery cells.
The Numbers Aren’t Good
The first Toyota Mirai was delivered in the U.S. in November 2015. In due course, it was joined by the Honda Clarity Fuel Cell and the Hyundai Nexo. All run on hydrogen, and have no tailpipe emissions beyond condensed water vapor. They are the only three hydrogen-powered cars you can lease or buy.
TOYOTA The original Toyota Mirai. Since 2012, about 8,000 cars powered by hydrogen have been sold in the U.S. They can be operated only in California, because that’s the only place with a (pricey and so far unreliable) hydrogen fueling network. They can travel through most of the state, but taking one from Los Angeles to Tucson and back? Can’t be done. In contrast, almost 10 years into the era of modern electric cars (which began in December 2010), fully 1.3 million battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles have been sold in the U.S. Long-distance travel remains tough in anything that isn’t a Tesla, but it’s at least possible. The hurdles to any automotive innovation are substantial, and a switch in fuels (or, technically, energy carriers) is among the most challenging. Ethanol hasn’t changed the game as expected 15 years ago. As for passenger cars powered by diesel, we know how that story ended. Meanwhile, cars with plugs are going from strength to strength. It’s not due to what you might call “natural” market demand, but thanks to strong national and regional regulations designed to slash tailpipe emissions from road vehicles. Carmakers see electric cars as a much better response to those regulations than hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles.
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